Factors Affecting Fertility Rate in Iran (Panel Data 1966-2013): A Survey Study

Abstract

Objective: Population and its corresponding problems are among multidimensional and complicated issues of human communities and their related features are the basis for making any plan or policy. Fertility, as one of the principle components of population growth, is an issue that has always been taken into consideration and extensive research has been carried out to recognize factors affecting on it. Therefore, the authors decided to study the most important factors influencing fertility rate in Iran by conducting a longitudinal study and considering the effect of various time periods on its population changes.
Materials and methods: This is a descriptive-analytic study. Its required information is a combination of cross-sectional and time series data (panel data) that were extracted from 1966 to 2013 from Iran’s population categorized by the country’s 24 provinces and from statistical yearbooks of Statistical Center of Iran and Organization of Civil Registration. The final estimations were made using Eviews 7 and STATA 12 software. Findings showed that variables of marriage, women’s level of education, unemployment, population policies, Sunni population, economic policies and annual expenses of households have influenced the fertility rate.
Results: Based on the research results, marriage and women’s level of education respectively had the most positive and the most negative effects on the fertility rate. Then, unemployment, family planning policies, policies of paying cash subsidies and total annual household expenses had reverse effects on the fertility rate and the policies of paying cash subsidies and Sunni population had positive effects on the fertility rate.
Conclusion: In order to make policies of increasing fertility rate effective by governmental and politicians’ planning, more attention should be paid to providing conditions for marriage and reducing unemployment.