Original Articles

Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012)

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trend of changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), Total Fertility Rate
(TFR), and Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR) in rural areas of Fars province, southern Iran during 1988-2012.
Materials and methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted based on analyze fluctuations in
fertility. Information about the number of births and mothers aged 15-49 years was collected. By
calculating the ASFR, TFR, and CFR along with analyzing their patterns the trend of changes in fertility
rate would be revealed. Finally, modeling and time series forecast of ASFR based on age groups was
conducted using the SPSS software.
Results: The TFR was estimated to be 4.21, 2.1, 1.76, 1.65, and 1.78 per thousand in 1992, 1997,
2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively. Moreover, CFR was 2.01, 1.54, 1.05, 0.54, and 0.13 for those
born during 1972-1976, 1977-1981, 1982-1986, 1987-1990, and 1991-1995, respectively. Also the
time trend of ASFR based on age groups showed a negative slope.
Conclusion: The fertility followed a negative slope during 1992-2012, indicating their descending trend
during these years. TFR = 2.1 was a standard population replacement rate in the societies. Therefore,
continual decline of this rate during 1992-2012 could be a warning factor that requires planning for
reform and precise evaluation.

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IssueVol 13, No 1 (March 2019) QRcode
SectionOriginal Articles
DOI https://doi.org/10.18502/jfrh.v13i1.1606
Keywords
Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR Total Fertility Rate (TFR) Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR)
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How to Cite
1.
Ghaem H, Zare M, Hemmati A, Moghadami M, Moradi F, Semati A. Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012). J Family Reprod Health. 2019;13(1):1-6.