Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012)

  • Haleh Ghaem Department of Epidemiology, Research Center for Health Sciences, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • Marjan Zare Department of Epidemiology, School of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • Abdulrasool Hemmati Vice Chancellor of Health Affairs, Non-Communicable Diseases Research Center, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • Mohsen Moghadami Department of Medicine, Research Center for HIV/AIDS, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • Fariba Moradi Department of Social Medicine, Family and Population Health Administration, Deputy of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
  • Ali Semati Vice Chancellor of Health, Shiraz University of Medical Sciences, Shiraz, Iran
Keywords: Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR, Total Fertility Rate (TFR), Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR)

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the trend of changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rate (ASFR), Total Fertility Rate(TFR), and Cohort Fertility Rate (CFR) in rural areas of Fars province, southern Iran during 1988-2012.Materials and methods: This cross-sectional study was conducted based on analyze fluctuations infertility. Information about the number of births and mothers aged 15-49 years was collected. Bycalculating the ASFR, TFR, and CFR along with analyzing their patterns the trend of changes in fertilityrate would be revealed. Finally, modeling and time series forecast of ASFR based on age groups wasconducted using the SPSS software.Results: The TFR was estimated to be 4.21, 2.1, 1.76, 1.65, and 1.78 per thousand in 1992, 1997,2002, 2007, and 2012, respectively. Moreover, CFR was 2.01, 1.54, 1.05, 0.54, and 0.13 for thoseborn during 1972-1976, 1977-1981, 1982-1986, 1987-1990, and 1991-1995, respectively. Also thetime trend of ASFR based on age groups showed a negative slope.Conclusion: The fertility followed a negative slope during 1992-2012, indicating their descending trendduring these years. TFR = 2.1 was a standard population replacement rate in the societies. Therefore,continual decline of this rate during 1992-2012 could be a warning factor that requires planning forreform and precise evaluation.

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Published
2019-07-28
How to Cite
1.
Ghaem H, Zare M, Hemmati A, Moghadami M, Moradi F, Semati A. Pattern of Changes in Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Total Fertility Rate, and Cohort Fertility Rate in Rural Areas of Fars Province, Southern Iran (1988-2012). J Fam Reprod Health. 13(1):1-6.
Section
Original Articles